debian and then pure business.....

[Marcel Kunath]

Just saw this article and wondered what the die hard debian fans here on the
list see as fit approach in handling this situation.

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/000418-000014.html


I think daily about the acceptance of Linux in general and also in the market
place e.g. investment, stock prices, pe ratio, profitability. I lately have a
serious problem with seeing them ever step over the hurdle of profitability
(rhat, corl, cald, etc). I still believe Linux will take a strong hold over
servers, appliances and maybe even the desktop but I can't see it filling the
coffers of the companies.

Looking over the past short period I got to wonder if we would have had more
success if Linux stayed away from the stock market and people continued raising
support by solid software, less hype, more convincing and build a strong IT
support base. I don't know how many people watch CNBC but the daytraders left
the stock, the main investors don't like it anymore and the sane value people
wait 6 more quarters til we maybe see a profit. Until then Redhat might be
dead. I wonder what would happen if companies as IBM, Dell or alike tried to
buy up for instance Corel. It would remove almost all licensing costs on OS
and other software. Production-in-house basically.

I also have two serious "problems".

There is not enough advertising for Linux.
I question the sense of putting Linux ads into the LinuxJournal. I mean we all
know Linux people are the most educated about Linux software. There is no
reason for persuasion. I haven't seen a single TV ad either. The net is all
fine but you got to be on TV to get into the minds of the people who don't know
about your site. Crazy as I am I wrote Bill O'Reilly @ foxnews.com yesterday to
get some open source people on his talk show. The topic has never been covered
before there and I believe (without making this an ad =) The Factor is one of
the most mainstream successful talkshows around. If you want Linux to succeed
on the desktop it doesn't help to get to IT only. Go mainstream or at least
try. How often have you seen Linus on TV? Not a lot. I know its not the way
Linux people are but to win in the neighbors court you got to play by the
neighbors rules.

Second is the dropping stock prices. My friend asked me about getting into
Caldera and I said: "Are you nuts?" I promise you its a loosing trade. 3 weeks
later its below IPO and we haven't even reached the unlockdates for CALD
shares (9/17/00 unlockdates.com). Caldera should have postponed their IPO
indefinitely. They are killing their infant investors. By the time September
gets here it might be worth pennies. The few chosen candidates for stock price
support get punished for their commitment.

I feel proud about the way Linux people interact. It's with emotion and
dedication and good interest. Linux people seem to love their OS more than other
OS users I came in contact with. And they seem to have valid reasons to do so.
Now how come this love goes only as far as the keyboard? Why does the stock
price of the Linux stocks not mirror the stability of Linux love or continueing
growth rate evident in growing number of Linux users?

I believe the hype runup was partial cause but we selectively are below IPO
price. I sense a lack of Linux users supporting the Linux companies in their
bid for capitalist market share. I truly believe among the 20 million or so
users is an immense wealth portfolio. But I haven't seen Linux people take a
stand to commercialization of their hobby. I definitely fear if these stocks
move into penny stock territory Linux companies will end up losers and due to
the nature of the licensing the Big Boys will pick up the left over
assets (code, hackers) and strive into the future.

People buy JDSU, CSCO, etc to make a good profit or even a killing on the
market. Due to the different heritage in Linux business I would think Linux
people would actively support the companies which supply them with their
products for a good price, and help them grow their circle of friends with new
users. But there seems to be no support at all. Is it the age average of a
Linux user which prevent them from taking interest into the business side of
the story? Last weekend an article about the Nasdaq crash was posted on
slashdot.org and the writer in the story excused himself for bringing up this
topic. Is there something that prevents/prohibits Linux people to take interest
in business issues?

I equate Linux stocks to Ben & Jerry's (BJICA). Ben and Jerry's a ice cream
maker in the northeast of the US. It was a private companies of two guys. They
create flavors of ice cream with fancy names. They took the company public. The
significant thing about BJICA is that they are community involved. They take
profits and spend them on community projects. They throw annual shareholders
parties with bands and ice cream fests. They have a close relationship to their
shareholders and their shareholders 'take part' in the business because they
identify with the way the business is lead and how the profit is spent. You may
call it the Ben & Jerry's shareholder community. I believe Linux users attitude
comes pretty close to that. But there seem to be the lack of Linux die-hard
shareholders or times are to early to tell.

Lots of questions. I don't have answers but I do feel this might spell a sick
relationship between Linux and the business world.

At last I might say I did not write this to reason that stock prices should
have kept rising. I like to see a long term upward trend line with a annual
growth of 5-15% in stock price. I think its a reasonable growth for the
potential which is there. This trend line is clearly not there. Maybe we bottom
out right now and we will see this trend line developing over the next 12
months. We will see.

-- Marcel Kunath

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 Montie House Network            Greater Lansing Linux Users Group
  http://www.montiehouse.com      http://www.gllug.org

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